Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
Simulate how long your retirement portfolio lasts at different withdrawal rates, returns, and inflation assumptions.
How to Use This Calculator
1. Enter your total investment portfolio value.
2. Set your planned withdrawal rate — the classic "4% rule" is a common starting point.
3. Adjust expected annual return, inflation rate, and retirement horizon.
The 4% Rule: Based on historical research (Bengen 1994 / Trinity Study), a 4% initial withdrawal rate from a 60/40 portfolio has historically survived 30-year retirements. Some now recommend 3.3–3.5% for longer horizons or safer planning.
Real-World Examples
Annual withdrawal: $40,000 | Ending balance: ~$1.05M (historically survives)
Annual withdrawal: $40,000 — higher risk of depletion in a 30+ year retirement
Frequently Asked Questions
Current research suggests 3.3–3.7% is safer given today's lower bond yields and longer life expectancies. The original 4% was based on 30-year retirements with a 50–75% stock allocation.
Sequence of returns risk is the biggest danger. A major crash in years 1–5 of retirement is far more damaging than the same crash in years 20–25. Many retirees hold 1–2 years of expenses in cash as a buffer.
A fixed rate adjusted for inflation (like this calculator) is conservative. Many financial planners recommend a "guardrails" strategy — cut spending 10% if the portfolio drops below a threshold, increase spending if it performs well.
Stay in the loop
Get notified when new calculators and features are added. No spam, ever.